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ELECTION - 18 days from today

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2010

THE HOUSE MAY BE IN ORDER – AT 8:10 P.M. ET:  RealClearPolitics is showing continued GOP progress in the effort to control the House:

If the election were held today, Republicans would take 212 seats, Dems 184, with 39 toss ups.   It takes 218 for a majority.  So, if RCP is correct, the GOP is within six seats of De-Pelosing the House. 

On the Senate side, RCP continues to show slow progress for the Democrats.  As of now,  Dems would have 49 seats, the GOP 46, with five toss ups.  Taking out the toss ups, RCP estimates a Senate split 52 for the Dems, 48 for the Republicans, for a net gain of seven seats for the GOP.  Obviously, that woul d not give the Republicans control, but would certainly gum up the works.  To stop a Republican filibuster, the Democrats would need all 52 of their troops, plus eight Republicans, and that is a tall order.

On Tuesday we go into the final two weeks.  It is getting exciting, and very brutal out there.  And still we wonder if Mr. Obama will pull an October surprise.

October 15, 2010      Permalink

WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY – AT 8:00 P.M. ET:  Why do I think the American people aren't buying the idea that we're in an economic recovery?  From Reuters:

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dipped in early October to its weakest level since July, with buying plans on the decline, a survey released Friday showed.

Also, consumers' assessments of government economic policies fell to the lowest level since U.S. President Barack Obama took office, it showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 67.9, down from 68.2 in September and below the 69.0 median forecast among economists polled by Reuters.

COMMENT:  There is absolutely no reason for Americans to be optimistic about the economy.  Government policies have flopped, and the chief flopmaker has no idea what to do next.  God forbid, Mr. Obama should consult some Republicans.  That's original sin in his precincts.

We seem headed for a period of just bumping along, with unemployment continuing high, and underemployment even higher.  And Americans are listening to news reports that higher taxes and energy prices may be in the offing.  They are also noticing that state taxes, fees and fines have, in many cases, risen dramatically.

Happy days are here again.

October 15, 2010      Permalink

FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:   We keep stressing, here at Urgent Agenda, the need not to take our eye off the foreign-policy ball as we fight our election campaign.  Our enemies are not resting, and are not taking time out to watch Barbara Boxer speeches.

Consider this:

HAMBURG (Reuters) - Radical Islamists from a shut down Hamburg mosque linked to the September 11 attacks on the United States are now trying to infiltrate other mosques in and around the German city, according to officials and Muslim leaders.

Small groups of radicals have turned up at several mosques trying to establish a new meeting place since the Taiba Mosque, where the 9/11 leader Mohammad Atta once prayed, was raided and closed by police in August, they told Reuters.

With radicals no longer grouped around one mosque near the city's main train station, security services have stepped up their observation of Islamists around the city and Muslim associations are on the lookout for suspicious newcomers...

...A so-called "Hamburg Travel Group" of 11 radicals linked to the mosque left Germany in March 2009 to fight against the U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan.

And consider this, from Fox:

Senior U.S. officials are concerned over recent intelligence indicating that the Pakistani Taliban, which orchestrated the failed Times Square bombing, may have successfully placed another operative inside the United States to launch a second attack, sources tell Fox News. Authorities, however, know very little about the potential operative or any possible plot.

"[We] don't know who it is and don't know where it is," one source said. "We know the guy's here, but don't know anything about him."

Based on the intelligence, authorities believe the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, would have directed the individual to attempt another Times Square-style operation, but not necessarily in New York City.

COMMENT:  Eternal vigilance, readers.  Eternal vigilance.

October 15, 2010      Permalink

THE TEA PARTY SUCCESS – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  Michael Barone looks at the tea party movement, and explains its phenomenal success.  From the Washington Examiner:

I think this ad, from Colorado Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck and spotted by National Review’s Jim Geraghty, sums up one reason for the energy and enthusiasm of the tea party and other aroused opponents of the Obama Democrats this year. “They heard us, and yet they ignored us,” Buck says. The American people, speaking through polls and through the voters of (yes) Massachusetts, said, Don’t pass that health care bill. The Obama Democrats passed it anyway. They are now set to face the political consequences. Or, as Buck concludes, “Folks, on November 2 they will ignore us no more.”

Liberals who are puzzled by what’s happening should take 30 seconds and watch this ad.

The ad is at the link.

Barone is correct.  There's all kinds of journalism floating around the internet, in which grim pundits whine that Americans are know-nothings and are therefore turning against the elites, those better people with the Volvo extended warranty plans.  In fact, what Americans resent is not intellect, not accomplishment, but the arrogance of the elites, including the president, who talk down to them. 

When Dwight Eisenhower left office on January 20th, 1961, he said that now he'd achieved the highest rank of all - private citizen.  Our elites today, especially our political elites, don't understand that concept.  If they do understand it, they laugh at it.  It's their problem, and it won't be ours.

October 15, 2010      Permalink

IT MUST BE THE WEATHER – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  In the last few days we've had to report some problems in the GOP drive for control of the Senate.  Now there's a blip in Alaska.  Incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, defeated for renomination in the Republican primary by Joe Miller, decided to run as an independent, and is close to pulling off a Joe Lieberman, who did the same thing in Connecticut and won.  From The Weekly Standard:

Is Lisa Murkowski on the way to writing herself back in to the U.S. Senate?

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Alaska shows Republican Joe Miller with 35% support and Murkowski, the incumbent senator he defeated in the state’s GOP Primary now running as a write-in candidate, with 34% of the vote. Democrat Scott McAdams runs third with 27%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

The race remains Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings because if Murkowski wins she is expected to caucus with the GOP in the Senate.

But the reality is that Murkowski is the fourth most liberal Republican in the Senate, and is not a reliable vote for our side.  However, her name is popular in Alaska and Joe Miller occasionally stumbles, probably accounting for the tight race.  There are certain incumbents who have the political draw to pull off an upset if their party rejects them.  Lieberman is the prime example.  We'll see on election night if Alaska has produced another one.

October 15, 2010       Permalink

BACK TO THE SIXTIES – AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  Barbara Boxer is taking a page from the Patti Murray playbook.  In Washington state, Sen. Murray has pulled ahead of GOP challenger Dino Rossi by running a campaign directed at women.  Boxer, maybe feeling some heat, is learning the lesson, as The Politico notes:

LOS ANGELES — Sen. Barbara Boxer returned on Thursday to a tried and tested campaign strategy by painting her opponent as an extreme anti-abortion conservative who is out of touch with California voters.

The three-term Democrat used a rally at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel to claim that GOP nominee Carly Fiorina would become a sure Senate vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.

"Make no mistake about it," Boxer said alongside actresses Maria Bello, Amy Brenneman and Alfre Woodard, and Reps. Jane Harman, Diane Watson and Laura Richardson. "A woman's right to choose is on the ballot here in California this year. It's very stark. Barbara Boxer, pro-choice, versus Carly Fiorina, anti-choice. It's very clear and very important people know this."

And...

"Barbara Boxer is a very talented politician, but her single greatest skill is running against pro-life opponents," said one California Republican political analyst. "She's really good at it. Matt Fong [her GOP nominee in 1998] didn't even know he was pro-life until Barbara Boxer got through with him."

Both Boxer and Murray are symbolic of the retrograde nature of the Democratic Party.  Both are children of the sixties, and want so much to return.  Boxer, as we noted here yesterday, gives a helping hand to Code Pink, and Murray made some favorable comments about the idealism of Osama bin Laden after the 9-11 attacks. 

But, alas, Boxer's return to the abortion issue will probably work.  It has worked before.  It is one of the standard fear tactics of the political left.

Carly Fiorina continues to fight, and is still within striking distance of Boxer.  A huge Republican turnout in California might turn this one around, but that bankrupt, high-living state is tough for us.

October 15, 2010     Permalink

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2010

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 10:15 P.M. ET:

Embarrassed Chicago election officials Thursday announced they’d move to correct a misspelling of the Green Party candidate for governor’s name from “Rich Whitey to “Rich Whitney" on thousands of voting machines used in heavily African-American areas in Chicago.

The fix is expected to cost “tens of thousands of dollars," spokesman Jim Allen said.

I think they were really afraid that Rich Whitey would get elected. 

October 14, 2010       Permalink

IS THIS GREAT TIMING, OR WHAT? – AT 9:26 P.M. ET:  This isn't our typical item, but I just had to report it:

Now, you all know what the big news channel event was last week, right?  It was the premiere of the Spitzer-Parker talkfest on CNN.  They're promoting the thing all over the place.  CNN apparently sees it as its crown jewel.  They're got these ads running announcing Parker as a "fearless" journalist, something we hadn't noticed, and Eliot Spitzer as a kind of modern-day Winston Churchill, leaving out the little matter of his having to resign the governorship of New York, previously held by Franklin D. Roosevelt, because of some commercial transactions with self-employed women of athletic virtue. 

So I'm at my computer today and an e-mail arrives from the Writers Guild of America, of which I've been a member for some 41 years.  It's an invitation.  I'm invited to a showing of a new documentary - CLIENT 9: THE RISE AND FALL OF ELIOT SPITZER.

Are we talking great timing here?  CNN has done handstands to avoid mentioning Eliot's, uh, problem, and now this film will be out there.  Will CNN review it?  Will Kathleen Parker mention it?  If it wins an Oscar, will CNN blank out its name?

Will Eliot be forced to do a Checkers speech?

Stay tuned. 

October 14, 2010      Permalink

LARRY'S LIST – AT 8:23 P.M. ET:  Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is one of the nation's leading election observers.  He's handicapped the Senate races, and is optimistic about GOP chances:

Concerning the Senate , the Democrats still appear to have a small edge to maintain narrow control—but Republicans have the opportunity to run the table, win a net +10 seats, and gain a one-seat majority. For now, we are raising (by one seat) the likely Republican Senate gain, from +7-8 to +8-9 . This was the level at which we had the GOP before its disaster in Delaware...

...However, Republicans have begun to do better in a couple of other states, and in this edition of the Crystal Ball, we are changing ratings in those two states: West Virginia and Wisconsin...

...West Virginia Senate goes from Lean D to Toss Up ...

...Wisconsin Senate goes from Toss Up to Leans R...

...Florida Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...Missouri Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...New Hampshire Senate from Leans R to Likely R...

...Pennsylvania Senate from Leans R to Likely R.

We noted before Labor Day that whenever the House has flipped parties since World War II, the Senate has changed party control in the same direction, even when election observers didn’t see it coming. If the Senate falls into the GOP column in 2010, it will do so right at the end of the campaign by a relative handful of votes in a couple of states. The closest contests are in Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia. To take control of the Senate, Republicans must win all of these seats, or pull off an unexpected upset in Connecticut or California.

COMMENT:  Sabato is a shade more optimistic about GOP chances in the Senate than are some other observers.  He now pegs the minimum GOP gain at eight seats, meaning the Republicans would wind up with 49 seats total.  As we've reported, RealClearPolitics pegs the probable GOP gain at five seats, with six toss ups.

The key to this election will be turnout.  No one doubts that Republicans, and critics of Obama, are energized far more than are the Dems.  But will the energy translate into votes on election day?  That may come down to items as basic as the weather in key areas. 

No guarantees.  Fight on.

October 14, 2010     Permalink

TOOMEY ROMPS IN PENNSYLVANIA – AT 9:45 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen reports that Pat Toomey is solid for the U.S. Senate against Democrat Joe Sestak, although Pennsylvania is normally a Democratic state:

Republican Pat Toomey now holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, the widest gap between the candidates since early April in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey earning 49% of the vote, while Sestak picks up 39% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, but a sizable 10% remain undecided less than three weeks before Election Day.

The race now moves from Leans GOP to Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Two weeks ago, Toomey, a conservative activist who formerly served in Congress, was ahead 49% to 40%, and earlier in September, he posted a 49% to 41% lead. Except for a brief bounce following his Democratic Primary win in mid-May over incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak has run second to Toomey in every survey since February.

COMMENT:  That's very good news, and we hope it continues.  Sestak is a strange cat.  He's a former Navy vice admiral, but seems to have left the Navy under a cloud, although he denies it.  Toomey is a solid conservative and deserves a seat in the Senate. 

October 14, 2010      Permalink

UNBELIEVABLE BLUNDER – AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  In a stunning development at the UN, Canada has been denied a seat among the non-permanent members of the Security Council.  Canada, a founding member of the UN, has had the seat each decade since the organization was founded in 1945.   Of course, Canada is one of our closest allies, and is now run by the conservative government of Steve Harper.  So the American role in this setback is stunning.  From Fox News:

The United Nations General Assembly elected five new Security Council members this week. India, South Africa and Colombia ran in uncontested races from the Asian, African and Latin American regional groups and will begin serving on the Security Council in January.

But the remaining races were contested, with Germany, Portugal and Canada competing for two seats from the Western European and Others group. With the European Union already represented by veto-wielding France and Great Britain on the Security Council, and either Portugal or Germany certain to win another seat for the EU, it was critical that America’s close ally Canada win a two-year term.

The U.S. could use the help in pushing for U.N. reform and advocating pro-democracy policies. The current conservative government in Canada had been campaigning for months to sit on the U.N.’s most powerful committee with no public support from the Obama administration.

In fact, U.S. State Department insiders say that U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice not only didn’t campaign for Canada’s election but instructed American diplomats to not get involved in the weeks leading up to the heated contest. With no public American support, Canada lost its bid to serve. That gives the EU more than 25% control of the body and a strong voting block to ensure EU priorities become global priorities. -- This was the second time a high profile ally could have used U.S. help yet Rice chose to stay silent.

The other ally not helped by one of Rice's silent spells was Israel.

I'm sure Canada, which has always been there for us, will appreciate Barack Hussein Obama's indifference.  I suspect our position had something to do with the fact that Canada's government is conservative at the moment.  Also, Canada is part of the British Commonwealth, and you know how Barack feels about the Brits.  Remember how he sent a bust of Churchill back to Britain, right at the start of his administration?

Another great moment in American foreign policy.  It's becoming a hazard to be an ally of the United States.

October 14, 2010      Permalink

REAL NICE, HUH? – AT 8:36 A.M. ET:  From Andrew Breitbart's Big Peace blog:

So would aiding and abetting terrorists to kill US soldiers qualify as behavior unbefitting of a sitting US senator?

On October 12, Scott Swett at the American Thinker reported that Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) along with Representatives Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Henry Waxman (D-CA) secured diplomatic courtesy letters that allowed anti-American Code Pink activists to travel to Fallujah, Iraq. The radicals traveled to Fallujah in late 2004 to donate $600,000 worth of humanitarian aid to the people who had just killed 51 Americans and wounded 560 more earlier that month. Operation Phantom Fury in Fallujah was the heaviest US urban combat since the Vietnam War.

And...

Swett reported on how Barbara Boxer and Code Pink assisted terrorists in Iraq:

Perhaps the most revealing window into Boxer’s true feelings towards our military is her close alliance with Code Pink, a radical leftist group that reviles American troops as terrorists and assassins while praising their enemies as freedom fighters. For years, Code Pink has viciously harassed wounded veterans and their families outside Walter Reed Hospital, even telling the mother of a slain Navy Seal that her son “deserved to die.” Code Pink actively supports terror groups such as Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban, Hezbollah and al Qaeda.

The Code Pink website repeatedly praises “our beloved Barbara Boxer.” And why not? Boxer has worked with the group and supported its goals on many occasions. In early 2005, Boxer was the only member of the Senate to oppose certifying the Electoral College result that returned George Bush to office for a second term. Code Pink hosted rallies and participated in various demonstrations and marches to “defend democracy” against the results of the 2004 elections. They wrapped up the event at Senator Boxer’s California office, “singing her songs of thanks.”

COMMENT:  That nails it.  Boxer is up for reelection, but you may be sure that the mainstream media will never bring this up.  If they did, they'd be accused of "McCarthyism," the standard accusation of the left. 

Code Pink is just an old-line red operation, with loads of money.  One of its chief honchos, Jodie Evans, was also a major fundraiser for Barack Obama, when he ran for president.  There was a time when any respectable candidate for public office would turn down help from the likes of Evans, but Obama welcomed it.  No comment by the mainstream media.

This story should sicken you.  The question is why the people who give us the "news" aren't sickened as well.

Barbara Boxer, one of the most ineffective senators in the Senate, is up for reelection, and is leading in the polls in California.  That's the pity.

October 14, 2010      Permalink

REVERSAL (CONT'D) – AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  Last night we told you that Patty Murray, Democratic senator from Washington state, was improving dramatically in the polls, and that West Virginia was also, in its Senate race, moving toward the Democratic column.

We hate to report somber news, but we have to.  This morning's RealClearPolitics Senate-race summary reflects some Democratic progress.  A few days ago, RCP had the projected Senate tied at 48-48, with four toss ups.  That's now changed to 48 Dems, 46 Republicans, with six toss ups.

The toss ups are:  California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia. 

The problem here is that all six could easily go Democratic, leaving the GOP with a gain of only five seats in the new Senate, not exactly what we've dreamed about. 

There are also some expected GOP House victories suddenly in jeopardy, both in Ohio.  In one case the candidate was caught wearing Nazi uniforms in "reenactments."  Real smart.  Get yourself photographed in Nazi garb and try to explain it during a campaign.

We hope for better news.  We have less than three weeks to go.  This is the period when the electorate starts to focus strongly on the election.  Things are fluid.  Take nothing for granted.

October 14, 2010     Permalink